NANAIMO — There’s every possibility a central Vancouver Island riding could be one of the last called on election night.
A repeating slate of candidates in Nanaimo-Ladysmith from the 2021 election, which resulted in a three-way race separated by just 2,200 votes, are contesting 2025’s vote with a four-way split of a majority of votes widely expected between candidates for Canada’s major parties.
Michael MacKenzie, VIU’s Jarislowsky Chair in Trust and Political Leadership, told NanaimoNewsNOW the riding is something not found in many other places nationwide.
“I think it’s one of the most interesting ridings in the country. I’ve been looking for other genuine four way races, I haven’t found too many and Nanaimo-Ladysmith is unique in that sense.”
Incumbent NDP candidate Lisa Marie Barron is again facing Conservative Tamara Kronis, Green Paul Manly, Liberal Michelle Corfield and the PPC’s Stephen Welton.
Barron beat Kronis by 1,199 votes in 2021, with Manly a further 987 votes back.
Vote splitting has been a major talking point through the campaign, mainly among voters not keen to support Kronis or the Conservatives.
“There a big non-Conservative vote that’s a majority of the riding and people who don’t want to vote conservative are not sure where to put their vote,” Mackenzie said. “They don’t know which candidate is most likely or best positioned to beat Tamara Kronis.”
However a split on the right could have potentially cost Conservatives the riding in 2021.
The PPC’s Welton earned over 2,000 more votes than his party did in 2019’s election, nearly twice the margin Kronis lost by.
“[Welton] didn’t poll in 2021 with huge amount of support, but it might have been enough to make the difference between electing a Conservative and in that case, the NDP candidate. It could happen again that the PPC draw some support and one of the other candidates sneaks in and the Conservatives then lose.”
MacKenzie is keen to see how a variety of factors play into the progressive vote on Monday.
Barron’s incumbency, which includes “a good ground game”, along with name recognition and being well known in the community, will go head to head to head with Manly’s local presence and experience, along with Corfield’s surge in popularity compared to past elections.
However, Kronis represents a change in direction from past years for those seeking such a shift.
MacKenzie said it will all result in a unique ending Monday night.
“What we have here are very many credible candidates and a constituency that has lots of different political views and that’s what makes this constituency so interesting. What it does mean is that it’s very likely that we’re going to elect a representative that gets nowhere near a majority of the vote in this district.”
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Monday, April 28.
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